No one can be certain what’s going to hit or not on any cinematic calendar, which is something we’re witnessing in real time on the 2025 movie schedule. While 28 Years Later seems to have exceeded last weekend’s estimates, Elio’s record-low opening for a Pixar film has animation fans wondering why Pixar’s latest couldn’t soar among the stars. To answer that question requires an expert, and not an astronomer or a xenobiologist.
No, for this query, we need to turn to the world of finance; and Deadline did just that. Speaking with TD Cowan analyst Doug Creutz, the publication was able to discuss the most recent example of Disney/Pixar’s struggles in the market. In his estimation, Creutz sees the animation industry sitting on the edge of this particular paradox:
We expect movie studios to react to this clear trend by greenlighting fewer original IP animated films (don’t blame film execs, blame audiences.) The issue, of course, is that without new hit properties, a studio cannot grow its IP portfolio. This could be particularly problematic for Disney, which depends on its animated film/parks/consumer products flywheel to help drive overall company growth.
upcoming changes to the Magic Kingdom, properties like Cars are important to help drive innovation at Disney Parks sites around the world. Which also means more opportunities for merchandise sales, and of course more sequels.
Disney+ subscription offering. Which circles us back to the core understanding that’s existed at the heart of this issue since day one: audiences need to support these sorts of projects, in order to make sure they keep happening.
As one would expect, Doug Creutz cited the COVID-19 lockdown as a catalyst for what this report called the “enormously wide” divide between the performances of original movies and legacy-quels. Which feels somewhat of a natural side effect, as the streaming boom has enhanced the potential of something like the upcoming Pixar movie Toy Story 5 through easy access to the previous films and specials.
All of this ultimately ties into Pixar chief creative officer Pete Docter’s feelings on Elio’s opening, which show the balance that needs to be struck between those two halves. While it’s not necessarily a bad thing that the adventures of Woody and Buzz continue, there’s still a need for original hits to keep creativity – and business dollars – flowing.
It will be interesting to see if Elio can play the long game as well as 2023’s Elemental did; but of course it’s too early to tell. Disney/Pixar’s alien epic is currently showing in theaters, for all who are curious to experience its interstellar warmth.