Taylor Swift got in the way
A24
The Rock may be one of the biggest movie stars in the world, but, in some ways, his star power pales in comparison to pop megastar Taylor Swift. The Grammy-winner only just released her new album “The Life of a Showgirl” and, to coincide with that, Swift surprise-announced “The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” in late September. “Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” opened directly against “The Smashing Machine” at the last minute on a date A24 had staked out for months.
“Release Party of a Showgirl” opened to $33 million domestically and $46 million globally, sucking up most of the oxygen in the room. Granted, the audience for a Taylor Swift album release party and the audience for a somber MMA biopic about UFC Legend Mark Kerr are radically different. All the same, it’s fair to say that this movie’s release overshadowed “The Smashing Machine” in a big, bad way.
Let us not forget that Swift’s 2023 concert film “The Eras Tour” made nearly $250 million worldwide, with almost $180 million of that money coming from U.S. ticket sales. As an entertainment entity, Swift is unrivaled in the current moment. So, even though these movies, in theory, should have been able to co-exist, it’s clear that Swift took some wind out of the sails for Safdie, Johnson, and A24.
The buzz was good but not must-see great
A24
It’s no secret that getting people to show up to movie theaters these days is trickier than it’s ever been. When it comes to a movie like this that isn’t grounded in some familiar IP or offering copious amounts of cinematic spectacle, it’s all about generating must-see buzz. Unfortunately, “The Smashing Machine” was met with a largely good-but-not great response, which didn’t allow it to rise to that level of must-see for many viewers, it seems.
The movie currently holds 73% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes to go with a 77% audience rating. Good numbers, but not fantastic. Similarly, its B- CinemaScore was a bit damning, suggesting that word-of-mouth buzz will be lukewarm. A24 is very much hoping that this film can hang around for several weeks as awards season heats up, but the data before us isn’t offering a lot of hope that this movie will have a remarkable turnaround or anything like that.
In his review of “The Smashing Machine” for /Film, Bill Bria wrote, “Johnson’s performance alone is worth the price of admission.” Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”) has also earned a lot of praise for her performance. Be that as it may, this film has become more of a curiosity item for the majority of moviegoers, who appear to be taking a “wait-to-stream” approach. That may help its numbers down the line on VOD, but it sure as heck isn’t helping now.
Movies for adults are still a tough sell to broad audiences
A24
The box office has struggled mightily to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic since 2020. One of the biggest reasons for that is that films made for adults, original movies, and non-event fare are largely viewed from the comfort of home, with the vast majority of audiences not rushing out to theaters for anything less than a meaningful experience. Going to the theater for the sake of it is all but a dead pastime.
In that way, “The Smashing Machine” is a victim of its time. Most people don’t know who Mark Kerr is. The UFC is hugely popular now, but this wasn’t explicitly sold as a UFC movie for fans of the sport. A24’s “Civil War,” a similarly expensive gambit, promised an action-heavy, tense war flick. It debuted to $25.5 million en route to $127.3 million worldwide. Even that was a gamble, but it had some cinematic qualities that said “go see it on the big screen.” Sad to say, for most people, this movie didn’t.
Other movies this year such as “Black Bag”($7.6 million opening/$43.6 million worldwide), “Drop” ($7.4 million opening/$28.7 million worldwide), and “Bring Her Back” ($7.1 million opening/$39.3 million worldwide) suffered similar fates. The results for these films also give us an idea of where this movie could end up when all’s said and done. Theatrical profitability feels nearly impossible at this point, barring an “exception that proves the rule” sort of turnaround.
The Smashing Machine has limited overseas appeal
A24
Generally speaking, Johnson has a lot of global appeal, and Hollywood used to be able to rely on robust overseas box office returns to bail out certain movies when things didn’t pan out domestically. The “Jumanji” films did gangbusters business internationally, as did the “Fast & Furious” movies. Unfortunately, “The Smashing Machine” has pretty limited appeal to international audiences. Despite the popularity of the UFC, using history as our guide, it’s highly unlikely that The Rock’s usual appeal will save him in this case.
2023’s “The Iron Claw,” an inspired-by-real-life wrestling drama that also hailed from A24, opened to $4.8 million and finished with $45.2 million worldwide. $35 million of that total came from domestic ticket sales. Even in the pre-pandemic era, “The Wrestler” grossed $44.7 million worldwide, with $26.2 million of those ticket sales coming from North American audiences. But both of those movies were a lot cheaper to make.
“The Smashing Machine” features a much-discussed performance by Johnson and, before its release, there was some legitimate Oscar buzz. Johnson was viewed as a serious contender to land a Best Actor nomination. If that still happens, this film’s prospects could turn around on a long enough timeline. Without much awards season love, though, it’s very difficult to find any silver lining here. Even with Oscars, it’s going to be tough to justify this one from a dollars and cents perspective.
Even The Rock’s star power has its limitations
A24
On paper, “The Smashing Machine” seemed like a good idea. Safdie is a wildly acclaimed filmmaker. Blunt has been on a stellar run lately. And there’s the notion of turning The Rock into a more serious actor in a movie quite unlike anything he’s ever been in before. It’s not like A24 spent a wild amount of money on this venture either, as $50 million seems reasonable enough with all of the pieces on the board.
All the same, “The Smashing Machine” is a sobering reminder of the state of things. Johnson has admitted that he’s been chasing box office success for much of his career, and the actor was hoping to enter a new era beginning with this movie. It felt like The Rock was one of few stars who could actually get people to care for a more serious, non-franchise film these days. But based on these early results, that’s not the case. Johnson helped make “Moana 2” into a $1 billion hit, he helped take “Fast & Furious” to new heights, and his movies have collectively grossed $15 billion at the box office.
Be that as it may, even Johnson’s star power has its limits in the here and now. The box office is on uncertain ground, and even in the face of competition from Swift, there is no very good reason that this movie couldn’t have arrived closer to the $10 million mark that pre-release projections had it at. Even that wouldn’t have been great, but it would have offered a path to success. Now? The film’s fate may as well be sealed. It’s a shame, but it’s also a reality the industry at large has to contend with.
“The Smashing Machine” is in theaters now.
