The $1.3 billion success of “Deadpool & Wolverine” helped in 2024, but otherwise, the House of Ideas has been having a rough go of it lately, as 2023 was difficult sledding as well. Now, in 2025, both “Captain America: Brave New World” and “Thunderbolts*” have already fallen short of expectations. The question is, will “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” prove to be the hero the Marvel Cinematic Universe needs at this moment? The early numbers suggest that may well be the case.
Marvel Studios’ much-anticipated “Fantastic Four” reboot is currently expected to pull in between $125 and $155 million on its opening weekend domestically, per Box Office Theory. As far as recent MCU entries go, even on the low end, that would be above “Brave New World” ($88.8 million), “Thunderbolts*” ($74.3 million), “The Marvels” ($46.1 million), and “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” ($106.1 million). “Quantumania,” as you may recall, also collapsed after its opening and finished with just $476 million worldwide. I only say that to point out that a big opening weekend is only part of the equation here. Legs are key.
That being the case, reviews for “First Steps” could be a crucial factor here. “Superman” was tracking in a similar range and opened to $125 million domestically, plus a $220 million global debut. That number was aided by very strong reviews, but the bigger thing is that it’s now expected to draw in audiences for weeks to come. Marvel absolutely needs that to happen here. It can’t afford a middling response, which served to kneecap both “Brave New World” and “Quantumania.” Rather, the studio needs audiences on board in a big, bad way. Gone are the days when these types of superhero movies could seemingly coast to $800 million worldwide without breaking a sweat.
In terms of more direct comparisons, this opening would put “First Steps” somewhere between the likes of “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” ($118.4 million opening/$845.5 million worldwide) and “Thor: Love and Thunder” ($144.1 million opening/$760.9 million worldwide). Often with the MCU, particularly with the sci-fi heavy stuff, international ticket sales are a huge part of the equation. If that holds true for “First Steps,” then the current opening weekend projections are promising.
