“John Wick” might be the most unlikely $1 billion franchise of the modern era. The first film damn near went to VOD before it secured a theatrical release, becoming a modest hit. The series then exploded in popularity when “John Wick: Chapter 2” came out. The rest is action movie history. Now, Lionsgate is hoping to keep this money train moving in the right direction with a new spin-off in the form of “Ballerina,” aka “From the World of John Wick: Ballerina.” The question is, can this spin-off parlay Mr. Wick’s good name into meaningful success at the box office?
As it stands, director Len Wiseman’s “Ballerina” is looking at a domestic debut in the $33 to $39 million range when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That is pretty much right in line with earlier tracking numbers, which had the spin-off pulling in between $35 and $40 million (via Deadline). Mind you, the “John Wick” movies have performed very well overseas so international ticket sales are going to be a major factor here. On paper, this is a solid start, but this is going to be one of those “marathon not a sprint” situations.
An opening in this range would put Lionsgate’s latest above “John Wick: Chapter 2” ($30.4 million opening/$174.3 million worldwide) and below “Chapter 3” ($56.8 million opening/$328.3 million worldwide). The problem is that “Ballerina” cost quite a bit more than both of those movies, with the budget said to be in the $90 million range. That means it needs to make closer to “Chapter 3” money globally to justify its existence.
The film centers on Eve Macarro (Ana de Armas) — a ballerina-turned-assassin trained in the traditions of the Ruska Roma — as she seeks revenge for her father’s death. The cast also includes Anjelica Huston, Gabriel Byrne, Lance Reddick, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Norman Reedus, and Ian McShane. Rather crucially, Keanu Reeves reprises his role as John Wick, which has been leaned on very heavily in the trailers for the film.
