July Fourth fireworks are coming early to the summer box office, thanks to the combo of Disney’s live-action redo of Lilo & Stitch and Tom Cruise’s final Mission: Impossible movie from Paramount and Skydance.
The two tentpoles are expected to fuel the biggest Memorial Day of all time in terms of ticket sales and set numerous records in their own right. While the mash-up isn’t expected to be quite the same cultural phenomenon that Barbenheimer was, the potent combo of the two movies can’t be ignored. Parents may take their kids to see Lilo one day, then ditch them and go see Mission sometime else over the long holiday weekend (as for a moniker, how about “Stitchin: Impossible”).
The overall Memorial Day revenue crown currently belongs to the $306 million in ticket sales collected in 2013 when Fast & Furious 6 zoomed to $117 million, followed by The Hangover Part III with $50 million. It would also mark the best showing for two Memorial Day titles going up against each other. In 2007, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End opened to $140 million over the holiday frame, followed by Shrek the Third with $67 million.
There’s more: The biggest headline of Thursday’s latest tracking report from the National Research Group was Lilo & Stitch. Three weeks ago, NRG’s four-day opening number was $120 million. Now, it’s $165 million, a jaw-dropping gross that would, in an ironic twist, see Lilo & Stitch supplant Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick ($160 million) as the biggest Memorial Day opener of all time, not adjusted for inflation.
The news got even better for Disney and production company Rideback as early grosses began coming in from Thursday previews and Friday matinees — the PG pic is now projected to collect a massive $170 million to $180 million domestically, including a record $14.5 million in Thursday previews.
Lilo & Stitch isn’t just drawing interest from families; it’s popping big time among teenage girls and younger women — i.e., Gen Z and younger Millennials — who grew up on the first 2002 movie and resulting TV show about a Hawaiian girl with a fraught family life who adopts an adorable, albeit trouble-making, dog-like alien. Box office pundits say the nostalgic factor is running high, just as it did among Millennials and Gen Z’ers for the live-action Aladdin, which made $1.1 billion in global ticket sales after getting families, teens and younger adults.
The live-action Lilo & Stitch — originally intended to go straight to Disney+, helping to explain its modest $100 million production budget — would mark one of the better openings for a Disney live-action film. It has a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 72 percent.
Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning, with a current RT critics score of 79 percent, is on course to open to $78 million for the four days, in line with tracking. That would more than make up for the lackluster $54.7 million bow of the previous film in the series, as well as supplant the $61.2 million three-day launch of Mission: Impossible — Fallout to set a new franchise opening record.
Cruise and director Christopher McQuarrie went back to the drawing board after Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One disappointed and, among other changes, renamed the film. Their efforts appear to be paying off if tracking is correct. Final Reckoning resonates with its older male target audience in a major way, as well as among older females and younger males (the only quadrant who isn’t so interested are younger females).
A big challenge in terms of the film’s financial success is its $400 million net budget before marketing — making it one of the most expensive films ever made — although Paramount insiders note that each new installment increases the value of the entire library, including a spike in home entertainment sales and rentals of previous titles.
The two films will kick off what’s expected to be a stellar June in terms of ticket sales. Hollywood got even more good news on Thursday when early tracking confirmed that Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon is eyeing a $72 million domestic debut.
May 23, 4 p.m. Updated with early box office returns.